Mid-Year Market Report: Rent Trends Across 6 Cities

Halfway through 2024, a clear pattern has emerged across every major rental market we track: new construction is delivering units faster than the market can absorb them. The result is the most renter-friendly environment in at least three years. If you are renting, you have leverage. Here is the data, city by city.

The National Context

Before diving into individual markets, the macro picture matters. The US apartment construction pipeline has been at historic highs. Approximately 440,000 new apartment units were delivered nationally in 2023, and the pace has continued through the first half of 2024. These units were financed and started during the pandemic-era demand surge and low interest rate environment. They are arriving now, into a market where demand growth has normalized.

The result: national apartment vacancy rates have ticked up from their 2022 lows of around 4.5% to approximately 6.5% at mid-year 2024. That does not sound like a dramatic shift, but in apartment economics, each percentage point of vacancy represents billions of dollars of lost revenue across the national portfolio. Buildings respond to rising vacancy by cutting prices and offering concessions. That response is what renters should capitalize on.

Chicago: Flat Rents, Concessions Returning Downtown

Chicago's rental market is stable, which in the current environment actually means "better than most." Average asking rents are essentially flat year-over-year: $1,750 for a one-bedroom, up less than 1% from mid-2023. The overall market is not declining, but it is not growing either.

The interesting story is in the downtown sub-markets. The Loop, South Loop, and River North are seeing a return of concessions that largely disappeared in 2022-2023. Buildings in these areas are offering 4-8 weeks free on 13-14 month leases, driven by two factors: new construction deliveries (several large buildings in South Loop and the West Loop opened this year) and a persistent softness in demand from office workers who have not fully returned to five-day-a-week in-office schedules.

The neighborhoods that remain tight: Lincoln Park, Lakeview, and Logan Square. These areas have limited new construction, strong demand from young professionals, and minimal concession activity. If you are searching in these neighborhoods, do not expect much pricing flexibility.

Recommendation: If you can work hybrid or remote, downtown Chicago represents exceptional value right now. You can get a Class A apartment in the South Loop or West Loop for 10-15% less than peak pricing after factoring in concessions.

Dallas-Fort Worth: Oversupply Is Real

DFW is the most dramatic story in our portfolio. The metroplex has been the number one apartment construction market in the country for the past two years, and the consequences are now visible in the data.

Average one-bedroom rents have declined approximately 3% year-over-year to $1,370. That average understates the reality in certain sub-markets. Uptown Dallas, which saw intense new construction activity, has effective rents (after concessions) down 8-12% from their 2022 peaks. Frisco and McKinney, where entire new communities of luxury apartments have delivered, are seeing concessions of 6-10 weeks free.

The oversupply is concentrated in Class A product. If you are looking for a luxury apartment with modern finishes, a pool, and a fitness center, you are in the strongest negotiating position DFW has offered in years. Class B and C (older, workforce housing) has been less affected because developers do not build Class B on purpose. The supply surge is almost entirely in the $1,300-2,200/month range.

Recommendation: DFW is a buyer's market for renters. Do not sign the first lease you are offered. Visit multiple buildings, collect concession offers, and negotiate. Buildings in lease-up will match or beat competing offers.

Houston: Steady, Energy Corridor Still Recovering

Houston is the most stable market in our Texas portfolio, which reflects its unique economic structure. Houston's economy is less dependent on the tech and finance sectors that drive volatility in Dallas and Austin. Energy, healthcare, and the massive Texas Medical Center anchor demand.

Average one-bedroom rents: $1,240, essentially flat year-over-year. New construction is moderate compared to DFW and Austin. The overall market is balanced between supply and demand.

The exception is the Energy Corridor (west Houston, around Katy Freeway and Dairy Ashford). This sub-market took a hit during the 2020 oil price crash and has not fully recovered. Occupancy in the Energy Corridor is running 3-5 percentage points below the metro average. Buildings here are offering the deepest concessions in the Houston metro: 6-8 weeks free is common. If you work in the energy sector or anywhere on the west side, this is where the deals are.

Recommendation: Houston is neutral territory. Not a renter's market, not a landlord's market. Focus on specific sub-market opportunities, particularly the Energy Corridor and areas where new construction has delivered.

Austin: The Correction Continues

Austin is the poster child for what happens when a market overheats and then oversupplies. Average one-bedroom rents are down approximately 5% year-over-year to $1,480. In specific sub-markets (Domain, East Riverside, downtown), declines are steeper: 8-12% from the 2022 peak.

The story is straightforward. During 2020-2022, Austin saw explosive demand driven by tech migration (Tesla, Oracle, Samsung, plus thousands of remote workers). Rents spiked 20-30% in two years. Developers responded by starting an unprecedented number of new projects. Those projects are now delivering into a market where tech hiring has slowed, some remote workers have moved on, and the demand surge has normalized.

The result: more than 20,000 new apartment units have delivered or are delivering in the Austin metro in 2024. Absorption cannot keep pace. Vacancy rates are approaching 8% in some sub-markets. Concessions are aggressive and widespread.

Recommendation: If you have been priced out of Austin in recent years, look again. The market has reset meaningfully. The Domain area and East Riverside in particular are offering concessions that bring effective rents to 2020 levels. Lock in a 14-18 month lease to maximize the duration of your below-market rate.

San Antonio: Slow, Steady, Best Value in Texas

San Antonio continues to be the market we recommend for renters who prioritize value over hype. Average one-bedroom rents: $1,160, up a modest 2% year-over-year. No dramatic swings. No oversupply problems. No correction underway because there was never a spike to correct from.

New construction in SA has been moderate and well-absorbed. The Pearl District, Southtown, and the medical center area continue to attract development, but not at the frenetic pace seen in Austin or DFW.

Recommendation: SA remains the value play. If you work remotely and earn an Austin or Dallas salary, SA gives you 25-35% more purchasing power on rent alone. The lifestyle delta between SA and Austin has narrowed significantly as the Pearl and Southtown continue to develop.

Denver: Slight Uptick, Limited Supply

Denver is the one market in our portfolio where rents have modestly increased at mid-year 2024. Average one-bedroom rents: $1,710, up approximately 2% year-over-year. The reason: Denver's construction pipeline is smaller relative to its market size than the Texas metros. Fewer new units means less downward pressure on pricing.

The areas with the most concession activity are RiNo and Sun Valley, where new construction is concentrated. LoDo, Capitol Hill, and Cherry Creek remain tight with minimal concessions. Denver's seasonal pattern remains pronounced: if you can time your search to November-February, you will find better pricing than mid-year.

Recommendation: Denver is the tightest of our six markets right now. If you are searching in Denver, cast a wider geographic net. Sloan's Lake, Globeville, and Aurora offer significantly better value than the core neighborhoods and are improving rapidly.

The Cross-Market Takeaway

2024 is a renter's market in most metros. The data supports one unified strategy: negotiate. If you are being presented with a lease at face value with no concessions, you are leaving money on the table. Here are the specific moves to make:

1. Ask for concessions. Even if a building does not advertise them, ask. "Are you offering any move-in specials?" Many buildings have discretionary concessions that leasing agents can offer but do not proactively advertise.
2. Compare net effective rent, not asking rent. A building offering $1,800/month with no concessions is more expensive than one offering $2,000/month with two months free on a 14-month lease ($1,714 net effective).
3. Lock in longer leases. If you are in a market with temporary oversupply (DFW, Austin), sign a 14-18 month lease rather than 12. This locks in below-market pricing for a longer period before the market potentially tightens as new construction slows.
4. Leverage competition. If you have a competing offer from another building, share it. Buildings in lease-up will often match or beat a competitor's terms.

The window of opportunity varies by market. In Austin and DFW, it may last through mid-2025 as supply continues to deliver. In Denver and Chicago, the window is smaller. Act accordingly.